A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
